Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price adjusted from HKD 11.6 to HKD 9.5, indicating a potential upside of 17% from the current price of HKD 8.11 [7][11]. Core Insights - The fourth quarter performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue of RMB 47.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and a significant profit increase of 124% compared to expectations. The adjusted net profit reached RMB 1.8 billion, reflecting an 80% year-on-year growth [6][8]. - The revenue outlook for 2024 has been revised down to an 8% growth forecast, previously estimated at 11%, due to lower visibility on revenue recovery in the core external integrated supply chain business [7][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, total revenue was RMB 47.2 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 2%. The external revenue grew by 9%, contributing 70% to total revenue. The internal order revenue increased by 11%, benefiting from adjustments in JD Retail's free shipping thresholds [6][8]. - The adjusted net profit for 2023 was RMB 1.8 billion, with a net profit margin of 3.8%, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by business structure optimization and operational efficiency improvements [6][8]. Revenue Breakdown - Internal orders accelerated with an 11% year-on-year growth, while external integrated revenue grew by 5%, driven by a 15% increase in average revenue per external customer [6][8]. - The number of external customers contributing over RMB 10 million in revenue increased by 22 to 384 in 2023, indicating a gradual recovery in customer numbers expected in 2024 [6][7]. Future Outlook - The 2024 revenue forecast has been adjusted to RMB 180.8 billion, reflecting an 8% growth, with an adjusted net profit margin projected at 2.0%, up 3 percentage points from 2023 [7][10]. - The report highlights that while cost reduction and operational efficiency improvements may help maintain profit margins, the visibility for a return to double-digit growth in external integrated supply chain revenue remains uncertain [7][10].
4季度内单带动业绩超预期；2024年收入展望弱于预期，下调至中性