1-2月贸易数据点评：进出口超预期的“开门红”因何？

Export Performance - China's exports in January-February increased by 7.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 2.7% and up from 2.3% in December 2023[4] - The trade surplus for January-February reached $125.16 billion, significantly higher than the expected $70.85 billion and up from $75.34 billion in December 2023[4] - Exports to ASEAN and the US turned positive, with ASEAN exports rising from -6.1% to 6.0% and US exports increasing by 5.0% from -6.9%[9] Import Trends - Imports in January-February grew by 3.5% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 0.3% and up from 0.2% in December 2023[4] - The increase in imports was driven by a significant rise in electronic products, particularly integrated circuits and data processing equipment[51] Sector Contributions - Labor-intensive products and real estate-related products saw notable rebounds, with exports of bags, textiles, and furniture showing double-digit growth[15] - Mechanical and electrical products, particularly general machinery, experienced over 30% year-on-year growth, supported by global manufacturing recovery[15] Market Outlook - Short-term export growth may face fluctuations due to high base effects from last year, but long-term support remains from ongoing demand in overseas real estate markets[41] - Emerging markets continue to be a crucial driver for China's export growth, particularly in regions like Russia and Latin America[9]