Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [2][5] Core Views - The company's 2023Q4 revenue reached RMB 47.2 billion, a YoY increase of 9.7% [2][5] - Internal integrated supply chain revenue growth benefited from increased revenue from JD Retail, driven by the reduction in free shipping thresholds [2][5] - External integrated supply chain revenue growth was driven by service diversification and increased customer stickiness, with average customer spending rising by 15.4% YoY [2][5] - Other customer revenue growth was driven by increased express and freight business volumes, with future growth expected from increased penetration on platforms like Douyin, Kuaishou, and Xiaohongshu [2][5] - Adjusted net profit for 2023Q4 was RMB 1.804 billion, a YoY increase of 79.6%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.8%, up 1.5 percentage points YoY and 1.8 percentage points QoQ [2][5] - The company is expected to maintain high single-digit revenue growth in 2024, with adjusted net profit margins improving to the range of 1.7%-2.0% [2][5] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 181.4 billion, RMB 195.9 billion, and RMB 210.2 billion, with growth rates of 8.9%, 8.0%, and 7.3% respectively [2][5] - Adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 3.352 billion, RMB 3.987 billion, and RMB 5.003 billion, with adjusted net profit margins of 1.8%, 2.0%, and 2.4% respectively [2][5] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 7.6% in 2023 to 9.9% in 2026 [1][5] - ROE is projected to increase from 2.1% in 2023 to 4.2% in 2026 [1][5] Market Data - Closing price on 2024/3/13 was HKD 8.32, with a total market capitalization of HKD 55.1 billion [2] - Total equity attributable to the parent company was RMB 6.8 billion, with total assets of RMB 15.9 billion [2] - EPS for 2023-2026 is projected to be RMB 0.10, RMB 0.20, RMB 0.27, and RMB 0.36 respectively [1][5]
2024年利润率有望持续改善