海外银行镜鉴系列：泡沫破灭后，日本银行如何生存？

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector, citing potential valuation recovery driven by steady earnings growth expectations and macroeconomic recovery [3][41] Core Views - The Japanese banking sector experienced significant challenges post the 1990s real estate bubble burst, with the TOPIX Banking Index underperforming the broader market for extended periods [12] - Japanese banks underwent massive restructuring, including mergers and increased overseas operations, to survive in a low-growth, low-interest-rate environment [28][30][32] - Despite the challenges, Japanese banks have maintained a stable ROE of around 5% since 2011, with recent improvements in profitability and valuation [13][41] - The report highlights that China's banking sector, with better economic and interest rate conditions, has stronger profitability compared to Japan, and current low valuations present limited downside risk [3][41] Company-Specific Analysis - Key companies like Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, Ruifeng Bank, and Changshu Bank are rated as "Buy" with positive EPS and PE projections for 2023 and 2024 [1] - Ningbo Bank: 2023E EPS of 3.75, 2024E EPS of 4.10, with a PE of 5.7x and 5.2x respectively [1] - China Merchants Bank: 2023E EPS of 5.61, 2024E EPS of 5.98, with a PE of 5.6x and 5.3x respectively [1] - Ruifeng Bank: 2023E EPS of 1.22, 2024E EPS of 1.48, with a PE of 4.2x and 3.4x respectively [1] - Changshu Bank: 2023E EPS of 1.21, 2024E EPS of 1.42, with a PE of 5.8x and 4.9x respectively [1] Sector Transformation and Strategies - Japanese banks shifted focus to overseas markets and diversified income streams, with non-interest income contributing up to 60% of net income for major banks [28][35] - The sector saw significant consolidation, with the top five banks increasing their total asset share from 38.8% in 1996 to 64.4% in 2017 [30][32] - Banks adopted a more cautious approach to lending and asset allocation, leading to lower credit costs and non-performing loan ratios [38][41] Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the current low valuations in the banking sector present opportunities for long-term investors, particularly in high-quality banks like China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank, as well as smaller banks with unique business models like Changshu Bank and Ruifeng Bank [41]