Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Logistics [3][7]. Core Views - JD Logistics reported a significant improvement in profitability, with Q4 2023 earnings exceeding expectations. The company recorded a revenue of RMB 47.2 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, and a Non-IFRS net profit of RMB 1.804 billion, up 79.6% year-on-year [4][7]. - The forecast for 2024 anticipates total revenue to reach RMB 180.98 billion, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year growth, with external revenue projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.8% from 2022 to 2026 [4][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, JD Logistics achieved a total revenue of RMB 166.625 billion, a 21.3% increase from the previous year, and a Non-IFRS net profit of RMB 2.761 billion, up 218.8% [4][6]. - For Q4 2023, the company’s revenue from integrated supply chain customers was RMB 23 billion, an increase of 8.8%, driven by higher income from JD Group and a 15.4% rise in average revenue per customer (ARPC) [4][6]. - The gross margin for Q4 2023 was reported at 9.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from Q4 2022, attributed to optimized business and customer structure and economies of scale [4][6]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects that JD Logistics will achieve a Non-IFRS net profit of RMB 3.253 billion in 2024, corresponding to a net margin of 1.8% [6][7]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is RMB 0.49, with a forecasted growth in net profit of 17.8% for the same year [6][7]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price for JD Logistics is maintained at HKD 16, based on a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.5 for 2024 [4][7].
盈利持续改善，23Q4业绩超预期