进出口2024年1-2月数据点评：出口动能或超预期

Export Performance - In January-February 2024, China's export amount increased by 7.1% year-on-year, a significant rise of 4.8 percentage points compared to December 2023[3] - The average compound growth rate based on 2019 figures reached 8.4%, up by 2.2 percentage points from December 2023[3] - Exports to ASEAN and the United States saw a substantial positive turnaround, while exports to the EU experienced a slight narrowing of decline[4] Import Dynamics - The import growth rate for January-February 2024 was 3.5%, up by 3.3 percentage points from December 2023, but still lagging behind export growth[15] - The import of mechanical and electrical products improved, rising to 7.7%, with significant growth in the semiconductor supply chain[5] - Imports from the US, EU, and Japan all saw declines, with reductions of over 9% from the US and EU, and a 5% decrease from Japan[16] Trade Balance - The total import and export amount in January-February 2024 was $930.86 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.5%[12] - Exports totaled $528.01 billion, while imports were $402.85 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $125.16 billion, which expanded by $21.37 billion (20.6%) year-on-year[12] Future Outlook - Export momentum may exceed expectations, supported by resilient external demand, particularly from "Belt and Road" countries and emerging economies[16] - Import dynamics are expected to improve as production resumes, potentially leading to a narrowing of the trade surplus[16]