功率龙头有望进入边际改善周期

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 51.71 CNY, based on a 25x PE for 2024 [6][14]. Core Views - The company is positioned to enter a marginal improvement cycle due to its vertical integration in the power semiconductor industry, reasonable capacity planning, and structural improvement in downstream demand [2][12]. - The company is actively expanding into emerging sectors such as automotive and photovoltaic, with ongoing product certifications and mass production efforts [4][31]. - The dual-brand strategy for domestic and international markets is enhancing market opportunities, with overseas revenue accounting for approximately 31% in 2022 [5][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading domestic power semiconductor IDM, integrating R&D, production, sales, and testing across the semiconductor supply chain [20][21]. - The revenue structure for the first half of 2023 shows that power devices account for 85%, discrete devices for 10%, and semiconductor wafers for 3% [3]. Market Outlook - The global power semiconductor market is projected to grow from approximately 48.1 billion USD in 2018 to 50.3 billion USD in 2023, with China's market expected to increase from 131.2 billion CNY to 151.9 billion CNY in the same period [33][34]. - The demand for power semiconductors is expected to expand significantly due to the growth in electric vehicles, photovoltaic energy, and industrial applications [31][46]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected revenues for 2023, 2024, and 2025 are 55.92 billion CNY, 65.81 billion CNY, and 76.80 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.50%, 17.68%, and 16.71% [6][14]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 9.04 billion CNY, 11.23 billion CNY, and 14.10 billion CNY for the same years, with growth rates of -14.77%, 24.30%, and 25.57% [6][14]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on the development of new products in the automotive and photovoltaic sectors, including a full range of 1200V trench IGBTs and carbon-silicon modules [4][12]. - The construction of the 8-inch wafer fab is expected to enhance supply assurance and cost control capabilities [3][12]. Competitive Position - The company operates under a dual-brand strategy, with "MCC" for the European and American markets and "YJ" for China and the Asia-Pacific region, fostering a dual circulation development model [5][12]. - The management team has extensive experience in the microelectronics industry, contributing to the company's strong market position [23][24].