2月物价数据点评：通胀走势分化 后续温和修复

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - February CPI increased by 0.7%, exceeding market expectations of 0.4% and rebounding from a previous decline of -0.8%[22] - February PPI decreased by 2.7%, which was lower than the expected decline of -2.5% and consistent with the previous month's decline of -2.5%[22] - The CPI's year-on-year growth was supported by a low base effect from the previous year's Spring Festival timing[24] Group 2: Factors Influencing CPI and PPI - The CPI increase was driven by improved consumer demand, seasonal factors, and adverse weather conditions, while the underlying demand recovery remains moderate[28] - PPI's underperformance is attributed to weak post-holiday demand and a lack of significant investment momentum in the economy[14] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, marking the highest level since February 2022, indicating some recovery in underlying inflation pressures[27] Group 3: Future Outlook - CPI is expected to slightly decline in March but maintain positive growth, with an annual growth forecast of around 0.7%[28] - PPI may see a weak rebound in the short term, with year-on-year positive growth anticipated by mid-year, supported by base effects and government bond issuance[14] - Policy measures aimed at stabilizing prices and promoting moderate inflation growth are expected to align with the central bank's monetary policy considerations[40]