Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [2][3][15] Core Views - The company reported a larger-than-expected loss in 2023, but its main product sales revenue grew rapidly, with total revenue increasing by 36.2% year-on-year to 6.21 billion RMB [2][5] - The company is expected to maintain strong revenue growth, with a projected CAGR of 22.1% from 2023 to 2026 [2][5] - The target price has been adjusted to 46.00 HKD based on a revised DCF model [2][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue reached 6.21 billion RMB, with a gross profit of 5.07 billion RMB, reflecting a gross margin increase of 39.8% year-on-year [2][5] - The net loss attributable to shareholders decreased by 52.8% to 1.03 billion RMB [2][5] - The company’s revenue forecast for 2024-25 has been slightly raised by 0.05% and 0.3% respectively, with expected revenues of 8.31 billion RMB and 9.90 billion RMB [2][5] Product Pipeline and Growth Drivers - The main product, 达伯舒 (Daboshu), is expected to see steady growth, with sales projected to increase from approximately 2.83 billion RMB in 2023 to 4.20 billion RMB in 2025 [2][5] - Other products have also shown rapid sales growth, with their contribution to total revenue rising from 26.6% in 2021 to 50.65% in 2023 [2][5] - Several products are expected to achieve significant milestones in 2024, including new drug applications and clinical trial advancements [2][7] Adjustments and Projections - The sales and marketing expenses forecast for 2024-25 has been increased due to management's commitment to promoting new products [2][5] - The net loss forecast for 2024 has been adjusted from 230 million RMB to 620 million RMB, while the net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 550 million RMB to 180 million RMB [2][5] - The company’s financial metrics indicate a recovery path, with expectations of turning profitable by 2025 [2][5]
2023年亏损超预期，但预计收入将维持较快增长