美股宏观策略研究报告：美国经济好，股指永不倒

Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is showing steady expansion, with the Federal Reserve maintaining the federal funds target rate at 5.25%-5.50% for five consecutive meetings since July 2023[57] - The GDP growth forecast for 2024 has been significantly raised from 1.4% to 2.1%, indicating a positive outlook for the U.S. economy[80] - The unemployment rate for February 2024 is reported at 3.9%, higher than the expected 3.7%, marking a two-year high but still below the Fed's target of 5%[41] Inflation and Price Indices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February increased by 3.2% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 3.1%[29] - The Core CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year, also above the expected 3.7%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[29] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for February surged by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing the forecast of 0.3%[31] Labor Market Insights - In February 2024, non-farm payrolls added 275,000 jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 200,000 and higher than the revised January figure of 229,000[23] - Average hourly earnings for private non-farm employees were $34.6, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, although this is a slight decline from the previous month's 4.4%[24] Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) is at 13.04, indicating investor optimism as it remains below the critical level of 20[63] - The Sentix Investor Confidence Index for March rose to 16.9, up 4.8 points from January, reaching a 25-month high[11]