Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Outperform" for the company, indicating an expected total return performance exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% over the next 12 months [10]. Core Insights - The company reported a 7.6% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4 2023, reaching 10.6 billion yuan, and an adjusted (Non-GAAP) net profit increase of 4.4% to 2.2 billion yuan, contributing to an annual revenue growth of 8.6% to 38.4 billion yuan and a 32.3% rise in adjusted net profit to 9 billion yuan for the full year 2023 [5][6]. - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency while maintaining service quality, achieving a 32.0% year-on-year increase in package volume in Q4 2023 to 8.7 billion pieces, and a total annual package volume growth of 23.8% to 30.2 billion pieces, with market share rising from 22.1% in 2022 to 22.9% in 2023 [5][6]. - The company anticipates a package volume growth of 15-18% in 2024, aiming to solidify its competitive advantage [5]. Financial Summary - For FY 2023, the company reported revenues of 38.4 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 41.9 billion yuan for FY 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 9.1% [7]. - The EBITDA for FY 2023 was 13.9 billion yuan, with expectations of 15.4 billion yuan for FY 2024, indicating a growth rate of 11.2% [7]. - The net profit for FY 2023 was 8.7 billion yuan, with a forecasted net profit of 9.5 billion yuan for FY 2024, representing an 8.2% growth rate [7]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout, announcing a regular cash dividend of at least 40% of the distributable profits starting in 2024, alongside a share buyback program expansion to 2 billion USD [6][7]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects a Non-GAAP net profit growth rate of 5.2% for FY 2024, with an expected PE ratio of 13 times for 2024 [6][7]. - The company’s return on equity (ROAE) is expected to be 15.1% in FY 2024, slightly decreasing from 15.4% in FY 2023 [7][8]. - The net debt to equity ratio is projected to remain at a cash position, indicating a strong balance sheet [8].
业绩稳健增长，提高股东回报