Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express [2][4] Core Views - ZTO Express reported a revenue of 38.4 billion RMB in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.6%, and an adjusted net profit of 9.01 billion RMB, up 32.3% year-on-year [4] - The company achieved a business volume of 30.2 billion parcels in 2023, a growth of 23.8%, outperforming the industry average by 4.3 percentage points, with a market share of 22.9%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [4] - ZTO Express has significantly increased its dividend and share buyback ratio, with a dividend of 0.62 USD per share for 2023, representing a payout ratio of 40%, and plans for semi-annual dividends starting in 2024 [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2024-2025, now expecting adjusted net profits of 10.87 billion RMB and 13.09 billion RMB respectively, down from previous estimates due to anticipated tax expenses related to dividends [4] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue (in million RMB): 2022: 35,377, 2023: 38,419, 2024E: 44,406, 2025E: 50,050, 2026E: 56,519 [5] - Adjusted Net Profit (in million RMB): 2022: 6,806, 2023: 9,006, 2024E: 10,873, 2025E: 13,090, 2026E: 15,669 [5] - Business Volume (in billion parcels): 2023: 30.2, 2024E: 35.0, 2025E: 39.6, 2026E: 43.9 [6] - Market Share: 2023: 22.9%, 2024E: 23.1%, 2025E: 23.3%, 2026E: 23.5% [6] - Price-to-Earnings Ratio: 2023: 13.7x, 2024E: 11.4x, 2025E: 9.5x, 2026E: 7.9x [5]
高分红高回够彰显底气，看好价值回归