Group 1 - New productive forces are the key to great power competition and the optimal solution for peacefully resolving debt issues, emphasizing the importance of improving total factor productivity (TFP) as a fundamental aspect of economic growth [1][19][21] - Historical comparisons of TFP and actual output in Japan, Germany, the United States, and China illustrate the consequences of stagnation and decline in TFP, leading to economic challenges such as low investment returns and overcapacity [1][24][47] - China's TFP experienced rapid growth post-WTO accession but has been on a long-term decline since 2011, indicating a shift in economic focus and the need for strategies to enhance TFP to avoid the middle-income trap [1][24][25] Group 2 - The investment environment for new productive forces is favorable, drawing parallels between the current macroeconomic conditions in the U.S. and China and those during the 1995-2000 internet revolution [2][36][80] - Both the U.S. and China are experiencing deflationary pressures, with significant government investment in infrastructure and technology, mirroring the proactive fiscal policies of the late 1990s [2][36][80] - The U.S. successfully supported emerging industries through substantial funding and policy initiatives, which led to a robust growth in high-tech sectors, a model that China aims to replicate [2][36][80] Group 3 - China's digital infrastructure and application sectors are poised to produce industry leaders, with a clear delineation of roles within the internet and AI supply chain [3][95][103] - Historical data from the U.S. internet boom indicates that upstream "shovel" companies saw prolonged stock price increases, while terminal application companies exhibited significant elasticity in their stock performance [3][95] - The unique resource endowments and institutional advantages in China are expected to foster the emergence of globally leading companies in the digital infrastructure and AI application sectors [3][103] Group 4 - Investment strategies should focus on the AI supply chain's potential to enhance TFP, with recommendations for companies across different segments: upstream producers, middle service providers, and terminal application developers [6][95][102] - Specific companies are highlighted for investment opportunities, including upstream producers like Cambrian and Hygon, middle service providers like Inspur and ZTE, and terminal application companies like Tencent and Stone Technology [6][95][102]
新质生产力是唯一解：基建先行，应用为王
Tai Ping Yang·2024-03-19 16:00