Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Co., Ltd. (3808 HK) with a target price of HKD 26.49, indicating a potential upside of 32.4% from the current price of HKD 20.00 [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The company's 2023 performance met expectations, with a significant increase in net profit and a higher dividend payout ratio. Revenue rose by 43.9% year-on-year to RMB 85.498 billion, while net profit surged by 217.9% to RMB 5.318 billion, exceeding market expectations by 2% [1][5]. - The strong recovery in heavy truck sales, both domestically and internationally, contributed to improved profit margins due to economies of scale. Heavy truck sales in mainland China and overseas grew by 40% and 46.9%, respectively [1][5]. - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio from 46.2% in 2022 to 50.1% in 2023, distributing a final dividend of RMB 0.965 per share [1][4]. Financial Performance Summary - 2023 Financials: Revenue reached RMB 85.498 billion, with a gross profit margin of 16.7%. Operating profit increased by 132.7% to RMB 6.487 billion, and net profit margin improved to 6.2% [5][7]. - 2024 Projections: Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 101.704 billion in 2024, with a projected net profit of RMB 6.436 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19% [4][7]. - Valuation Metrics: The report projects a price-to-earnings ratio of 10x for 2024, with an attractive dividend yield of 5.3% based on the current price [2][4]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the heavy truck market, with a market share of approximately 30% in mainland China as of early 2024. The market share for natural gas heavy trucks has significantly increased by 13.05 percentage points to 24.1% [1][5]. - The report anticipates continued growth in both domestic and international markets, with heavy truck exports accounting for 57% of total sales in 2023, and a forecasted market share of over 50% in the export segment for 2024 [1][5].
2023年业绩符合预期，派息率进一步提升，维持买入