Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shenzhou International (2313 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 116.00, indicating a potential upside of 76.3% from the current price of HKD 65.80 [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong order growth and full capacity utilization across all factories, suggesting a robust outlook for 2024. Despite a 10.1% year-on-year decline in sales for 2023, net profit remained stable at RMB 4.557 billion, aligning with market expectations. The second half of 2023 saw a narrowing of sales decline from -15% in the first half to -5.5% [1][5]. - The management anticipates a sales increase of no less than 15% year-on-year for 2024, with an average selling price growth of 1-2% in USD. Key clients such as Uniqlo, Adidas, and Puma are expected to see order growth exceeding 10%, while new clients like Lululemon may experience a 40-50% increase in orders [1][5]. - The report projects a gross margin improvement, estimating it to reach 28-29% in Q1 2024, driven by increased capacity utilization and a recovery in orders [1][5]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, Shenzhou International reported revenues of RMB 24,970 million, a decrease of 10.1% year-on-year, with a projected recovery to RMB 30,008 million in 2024, reflecting a growth of 20.2% [4][8]. - The net profit for 2023 was RMB 4,557 million, with earnings per share (EPS) remaining stable at RMB 3.03. The forecast for 2024 anticipates an EPS increase to RMB 4.57, representing a growth of 50.8% [4][8]. - The dividend payout ratio increased to 60.3%, with a dividend yield of 3.1% for 2023, and is expected to maintain a high payout ratio in the coming years [1][5].
全满的产能利用率和积极的全球招工预示2024年订单强劲