MENGNIU DAIRY(HK:02319)2024-03-27 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Mengniu Dairy is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 21.50, indicating a potential upside of 25.9% from the current price of HKD 17.08 [1][10]. Core Insights - Despite facing market headwinds, Mengniu Dairy has shown resilience with a 6.5% year-on-year sales growth in 2023, although net profit decreased by 9.3% to RMB 4.809 billion, falling short of consensus expectations by 14% [1][2]. - The company has experienced an increase in gross margin by 185 basis points to 37.2% due to lower raw milk costs, which also contributed to a slight increase in operating profit margin [1][2]. - The guidance for 2024 is disappointing, with expected sales growth in the low to mid-single digits, which is below previous expectations of 7.5% [2]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 98.624 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [3][11]. - Net profit for 2023 is expected to be RMB 4.809 billion, reflecting a decrease of 9.1% compared to the previous year [3][11]. - The company anticipates a slight expansion in operating profit margin by 30-50 basis points for 2024, while gross margin is expected to improve due to declining raw milk prices [2][11]. Segment Performance - The liquid milk segment, particularly high-end products like "Telunsu" and low-temperature yogurt, has shown strong performance, while ice cream and milk powder segments have faced challenges [1][6]. - Sales growth by category in 2023: liquid milk +5%, ice cream +7%, milk powder -2%, cheese +230% (excluding "Miaokelando" which saw a decline of 68%), and other products -32% [1][6]. - The high-end product trend continues, with fresh milk sales increasing by 16% year-on-year for premium offerings [1][6]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 are set at RMB 103.644 billion, with expected growth of 5.1% [3][11]. - The forecast for net profit in 2024 is RMB 5.482 billion, indicating a recovery with a growth rate of 14% [3][11]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from 30% to 40% [1][2].