创新药将引领收入稳健增长

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price raised to HKD 17.90, indicating a potential upside of 15.6% from the current price of HKD 15.48 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue increase of 7.7% year-on-year in 2023, reaching RMB 10.14 billion. Excluding milestone revenues, pharmaceutical product sales grew by 1.1% to RMB 9.40 billion, with innovative drug sales surging by 37.1% to RMB 6.87 billion, now constituting 67.9% of total revenue [2][3]. - The management anticipates steady revenue growth from 2024 to 2026, with a projected CAGR of 12.3%. Key drivers include strong sales growth of the oncology drug Amelotex and the hepatitis B drug Hengmu, both showing robust demand despite a challenging industry environment [3][4]. - The company is expected to receive a USD 185 million upfront payment for ADC drug HS-20093 from GSK in 2024, along with potential milestone payments based on development progress [3]. Financial Summary - The company reported a gross profit increase of 6.5% to RMB 9.07 billion in 2023, with a reduction in sales expense ratio from 37.8% to 34.9%. Net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 26.9% to RMB 3.28 billion, exceeding expectations [2][4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been slightly adjusted upwards by 0.04% and 0.1%, respectively, reflecting the positive performance in 2023 [3][4]. - The financial outlook includes projected revenues of RMB 9.38 billion, RMB 10.10 billion, RMB 12.05 billion, RMB 13.66 billion, and RMB 14.29 billion for the years 2024E to 2026E, with corresponding growth rates of 7.7%, 19.3%, 13.3%, and 4.6% [5][10].