行内偕作·宏观点评：财政数据点评（2024年1-2月）-收入不及预期，支出靠前发力

Revenue Analysis - National general public budget revenue decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, marking the second-lowest value in recent years[2] - Tax revenue fell by 4.0% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 8.6%[2] - Major tax categories showed mixed performance, with vehicle purchase tax growing by 29.8% and personal income tax declining by 15.9%[5] Expenditure Insights - National general public budget expenditure increased by 6.7% year-on-year, exceeding the annual budget growth target of 4.0%[6] - Significant increases in spending were noted in agriculture, forestry, and water (24.9%) and urban-rural community (19.6%) sectors[6] - Health expenditure saw a notable decline of 11.2% due to last year's high base effect[6] Government Fund Budget - Government fund budget revenue grew by 2.7%, with state land transfer income remaining stable at 562.5 billion yuan[7] - Expenditure in this budget decreased by 10.2%, primarily due to slower issuance of new special bonds[7] Budget Completion Progress - Overall fiscal revenue growth turned negative at -1.7%, while expenditure growth was positive at 2.7%[8] - The actual deficit reached 311.3 billion yuan, one of the highest levels in recent years[8] Market Impact - Government bond issuance slowed down, with a total issuance of 2.33 trillion yuan in January-February, down from the previous year[9] - The 10-year and 30-year government bond yields fell to 2.34% and 2.46%, respectively, reflecting historical low levels[13]