Tsingtao Brewery(SH:600600)2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Tsingtao Brewery [3][6]. Core Views - The potential for structural upgrading continues, and increased dividends reflect confidence in the company's stability and future growth [4][5]. - The company achieved a revenue of Rmb 33.94 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of Rmb 4.27 billion, up 15.0% year-on-year [8]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company reported revenue of Rmb 2.96 billion, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of -Rmb 0.64 billion, down 15.0% year-on-year [4][8]. - The total sales volume for 2023 was 800.7 million hectoliters, a slight decline of 0.8% year-on-year, with Q4 sales volume dropping by 10.1% [4][5]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 38.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.8 percentage points [5][7]. Sales and Pricing - The average selling price per ton increased by 6.4% to Rmb 4,172.1 per hectoliter, driven by a 4.2 percentage point increase in the proportion of mid-to-high-end products to 40.5% [4][5]. - The company expects sales growth to be stable in 2024, with a slight increase in average selling prices due to structural improvements [5][8]. Dividend Policy - The basic dividend payout ratio increased by 16% to 64%, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [5][7]. Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is Rmb 3.66, Rmb 4.26, and Rmb 4.86 respectively, with a target price maintained at Rmb 110 based on a 30x PE ratio for 2024 [5][8].