Workflow
销售人员大幅扩充,客户数大幅增长,盈利水平短期承压
LX TECHNOLOGYLX TECHNOLOGY(HK:02436)2024-03-31 16:00

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for LX Technology [3][9][10] Core Views - The company's large-scale expansion of sales personnel has led to a short-term decline in profitability, with a significant increase in customer numbers laying the foundation for future business acceleration [9][10] - Revenue for 2023 was approximately RMB 1.793 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.8% [4][5] - The adjusted EBITDA for 2023 was RMB 241 million, with an adjusted net loss of RMB 67.4 million [4][10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are RMB 2.027 billion (-16.1%)/2.396 billion (-28.1%)/2.958 billion, with the recycling business expected to maintain medium to low growth while equipment and IT service subscriptions are anticipated to grow at medium to high rates [5][10] - The adjusted EBITDA is projected to be RMB 367 million (-34.7%)/502 million (-41.7%)/630 million, with a CAGR of 20.7% from 2022 to 2025 [10][11] - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 8.2%, down approximately 3.8 percentage points from 2022 [4][11] Customer Growth and Market Position - The total number of customers significantly increased in 2023, with device subscription, IT services, and recycling business customers growing by 52.8%, 63.4%, and 86.8% respectively [5][10] - The company has over 590,000 devices available for subscription as of the end of 2023, indicating strong customer demand [5][10] Valuation and Target Price - The report uses an EV/EBITDA valuation method, assigning a multiple of 11 times for 2024, resulting in a target market value of RMB 3.58 billion, corresponding to HKD 3.88 billion, and a target price of HKD 11.0 per share [10][11]