2024-04-01 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD [2][21]. Core Views - BYD achieved a net profit of 30 billion RMB in 2023, representing an 81% year-on-year increase, marking a historical high and aligning with performance forecasts. For 2024, a 20% year-on-year growth in new energy vehicle sales is anticipated, including approximately 500,000 units for export. Despite a decline in per-unit profitability due to price reductions, overall profit stability is expected due to scale enhancements. The report suggests that the downward risk to the adjusted fundamentals for 2024 is minimal, with a solid market expectation base [2][21]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 602.3 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 42%. The revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 701.8 billion RMB, reflecting a 17% growth [3][24]. - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 20.2% in 2023 and 19.5% in 2024, indicating a slight decrease [3][24]. - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at 30.0 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 81%. For 2024, net profit is projected to be 31.8 billion RMB, reflecting a 6% increase [3][24]. - The report provides a valuation using a sum-of-the-parts approach, assigning price-to-earnings ratios of 23x for new energy vehicles, 18x for mobile and electronic businesses, and 13x for other businesses, resulting in target prices of 232.2 HKD for the Hong Kong stock and 248.4 RMB for the A-share [7][21]. Performance Metrics - In Q4 2023, total revenue reached 180.0 billion RMB, a 15% increase year-on-year. The gross profit was 38.2 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 21.2% [10][26]. - The number of electric vehicles sold in Q4 2023 was 944,779 units, a 38% increase compared to Q4 2022, while the average selling price decreased by 20% [10][26]. - The report highlights a projected operating profit of 46.1 billion RMB for 2024, with a corresponding operating margin of 6.6% [11][24].