2024年3月交付数据点评:销量逐步兑现,智能驾驶功能持续加速
Guolian Securities·2024-04-01 16:00

Investment Rating - The report suggests to "continue to pay attention" to the company, indicating a neutral stance on investment [6]. Core Insights - In March 2024, the company delivered 9,026 vehicles, representing a month-on-month increase of 99% and a year-on-year increase of 29% [2][3]. - Cumulative deliveries for Q1 2024 reached 22,000 units, a year-on-year growth of 20%, with expected sales revenue between 6 to 6.5 billion yuan [2]. - The X9 model has shown significant delivery improvements, with 3,946 units delivered in March, leading the pure electric MPV market [2]. - The company is enhancing its product matrix, with the recent launch of the P7i model priced at 249,900 yuan, improving cost-performance ratio [2]. - The XNGP intelligent driving feature is now available in 243 cities, with a monthly active user penetration rate of 82% [3]. - The company has established strategic partnerships with Volkswagen and Ali&Sons Group to accelerate global expansion [4]. - The channel structure is being optimized, with a total of 1,108 charging stations established by the end of 2023, alleviating range anxiety for users [5]. Financial Performance and Projections - Projected sales volumes for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 290,000, 540,000, and 650,000 units respectively, with corresponding revenues of 76.7 billion, 126.9 billion, and 138.2 billion yuan [6]. - Expected net profits for the same years are projected at -6.2 billion, 814.6 million, and 3.7 billion yuan, indicating a potential return to profitability by 2025 [6]. - The report outlines a significant revenue growth rate of 150% for 2024, followed by 65% in 2025 and 9% in 2026 [7].