每周投资策略

Global Market Overview - European stocks saw a general rise, with French stocks reaching new highs, while Asian markets experienced a decline, with Hong Kong and China outperforming [3] - The US bond market showed a downward trend as expectations for interest rate cuts diminished, leading to a decline in US and European government bonds [5] US Market Focus - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, with the first rate cut anticipated in June [7][10] - US inflation data for February exceeded expectations, with both overall and core CPI showing a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating persistent core inflation [20] - The resilience of US technology stocks over the past decade is noted, with Nasdaq index performance driven by valuation initially, followed by earnings realization [12] Japanese Market Focus - Japan's economic growth is expected to remain weak, with the Bank of Japan likely to maintain negative real interest rates even after ending its easing policy [29][59] - The anticipated increase in short-term interest rates by the Bank of Japan is expected to benefit insurance and banking sectors, with major banks like Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group projected to see dividend yields of 3.1% and 3.4% respectively [38][64] Global Technology Trends - Demand for technology terminals is stabilizing, with a focus on AI-related stocks such as CrowdStrike and Sea, which are expected to benefit from AI's contribution to revenue and profit [24][26] - The global server shipment volume for Q4 2023 was reported at 3.1 million units, a year-on-year decline of 17%, aligning with expectations as budgets prioritize AI [43] Investment Recommendations - CrowdStrike is highlighted for its positive outlook, with expectations of low double-digit growth in its annual recurring revenue (ARR) for FY25Q1, and a strong performance anticipated in the second half of the year [54] - Sea's e-commerce platform Shopee is expected to achieve high double-digit growth in GMV for 2024, with adjusted EBITDA projected to turn positive in the second half [27]