资本市场二季报（2024年4月）：境外关注降息预期反复，境内留心风险偏好修复放缓

Group 1: Financial Bonds - Strong demand for bond market allocation is noted, with a lack of "high" yield assets potentially driving institutions towards financial bonds, benefiting high-rated financial bonds [1] - The issuance of secondary perpetual bonds to supplement capital is increasing due to rising capital consumption and net interest margin pressure, particularly affecting small and medium-sized banks [2] Group 2: Convertible Bonds - Although convertible bond prices have risen and valuations have recovered, the pure bond premium remains low, and the conversion premium is still high, indicating a strong bond characteristic and high defensiveness in the current convertible bond market [2] - The upward price potential of convertible bonds may be constrained by high conversion premiums, and future convertible bonds with high conversion premiums may need to undergo adjustments to lower these premiums [2] Group 3: A-Shares Structure - High dividend sectors can serve as a core allocation, while high-growth technology stocks and high ROE blue-chip stocks should be balanced in the portfolio [8] - The high dividend sector is expected to continue attracting funds due to its stable characteristics, while technology stocks face pressures from fluctuating US-China relations and high speculative trading [8] Group 4: Hong Kong Stocks - The outlook for Hong Kong stocks remains uncertain, with expectations of continued volatility until economic momentum in China strengthens and the Federal Reserve shifts to a more accommodative policy [10] Group 5: Market Strategy - The strategy suggests maintaining a balanced allocation between stocks and bonds, with a focus on structural opportunities, particularly in high dividend, technology, and blue-chip sectors [52] - The report emphasizes the importance of controlling positions and achieving a balanced allocation to navigate through volatility [28]