科技制造行业2024年第二季度投资策略：二季度继续重点把握顺周期改善逻辑

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it provides insights into market performance and investment opportunities in the technology manufacturing sector. Core Insights - The Chinese economy is expected to accelerate recovery in Q2 2024, with domestic demand policies gradually taking effect, leading to improved demand growth rates. [3][16] - The report highlights the potential for a new round of commodity price increases driven by improved Chinese demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict. [3][16] - The market is anticipated to experience volatility in April 2024, with rapid sector rotation and a focus on new production capabilities and future technologies for investment strategies. [3][17] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Views - In March 2024, the market continued to rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index maintaining above 3000 points, and April is expected to show a wide range of fluctuations. [3][17] - The report suggests focusing on new production capabilities and future technologies while avoiding high-risk investments. [3][17] - The report identifies key sectors such as non-bank financials, real estate, and coal as underperforming, while sectors like non-ferrous metals and petrochemicals showed strong performance. [3][17] 2. Macroeconomic Conditions - The PMI for March 2024 was reported at 50.80, up from 49.10 in February, indicating improved manufacturing activity. [19] - New export orders rose significantly to 51.30 in March from 46.30 in February, reflecting a recovery in manufacturing operations. [19] 3. A-share Industry Performance - In March 2024, the machinery equipment sector rose by 3.61%, ranking 11th out of 31 sectors, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.75 percentage points. [32] - The defense and military industry saw a 4.41% increase, ranking 7th out of 31 sectors, also outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.55 percentage points. [32] 4. Key Stocks in Machinery Equipment Sector - The top three performing stocks in the machinery equipment sector for March were Jindun Co. (200.00%), Robotec (89.86%), and Jinrong Tianyu (85.07%). [34] - The worst performers included Changfu Co. (-21.87%), Lanke High-tech (-20.94%), and Jiyang Precision (-19.53%). [34] 5. Key Stocks in Defense Industry - The top three performing stocks in the defense industry for March were Zongheng Co. (101.58%), Lihang Technology (65.86%), and Guangqi Technology (50.44%). [36] - The worst performers included Guoguang Electric (-17.07%), Qiyi Er (-16.67%), and Hongyuan Electronics (-8.33%). [36] 6. First Quarter Performance - From January to March 2024, the machinery equipment sector declined by 3.92%, ranking 17th out of 31 sectors, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.15 percentage points. [38] - The defense industry also saw a decline of 6.29%, ranking 23rd out of 31 sectors, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.52 percentage points. [38]