海外宏观及大类资产周度报告

Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - February US CPI data recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.15%, up from 3.09% in January, indicating a slowing down in the disinflation process[5] - Core inflation year-on-year decreased to 3.75%, influenced by base effects, with core services remaining resilient[5] - The upcoming FOMC meeting on March 21 may present an upward revision risk in the dot plot, with potential adjustments from 75bp to 50bp[4] Group 2: Interest Rates and Bond Market - As of March 15, 2024, the 10-year US Treasury yield is at 4.31%, reflecting a weekly increase of 23.14 basis points[7] - The 2-year US Treasury yield increased by 25.41 basis points to 4.73%[7] - The current pricing of US Treasury yields is relatively balanced according to economic fundamentals, with policy changes being a key variable affecting recent interest rate movements[4] Group 3: Currency and Exchange Rates - The offshore RMB spot rate increased by 0.08% while the onshore RMB spot rate rose by 0.13%[33] - The US Dollar Index is at 103.4320, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.70%[33] - The Japanese Yen is expected to strengthen due to anticipated signals from the Bank of Japan regarding the exit from YCC, with a recent wage negotiation resulting in a 5.28% increase, the highest in 30 years[42] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Recent increases in core commodities, particularly crude oil and copper, have led to a rise in short-term inflation expectations[44] - Brent crude oil prices increased by 2.87% to $85 per barrel, while LME copper rose by 5.74%[102] - The gold-silver ratio is expected to converge as silver presents a better long position due to lower price levels[33]