跨越周期的种子选手——龙湖集团控股有限公司

Core Views - The report suggests that Longfor Group will face no debt repayment pressure in 2024, with cautious optimism for 2025, while 2026 and beyond will require close monitoring of monthly sales data and market sentiment [1] - Longfor's land reserves are concentrated in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, with 82.80% of its total land reserves located in these areas as of the end of 2023 [1] - The company's average land cost decreased to 4,705 yuan per square meter by the end of 2023, the lowest in five years, highlighting its gross margin advantage in sales [1] Land Reserves and Sales - Longfor's land reserves in Yantai account for over 20% of its total, making it the largest project reserve city, but the rapid cooling of the property market in Yantai since September 2023 has increased the pressure on inventory turnover [1] - The top 20 cities contributed an average of 76.03% of Longfor's sales over the past three years, with Chengdu, Hangzhou, Hefei, Chongqing, Beijing, Wuhan, and Xi'an being the key contributors [1] - In 2023, Longfor's sales in Hangzhou, Jinan, Shenyang, and Nanjing dropped by over 40%, adding significant pressure to its operations [1] Debt and Financials - Longfor has repaid a total of 180.23 billion yuan in domestic credit bonds and ABS from 2023 to February 2024, and successfully issued 3.3 billion yuan in medium-term notes guaranteed by China Bond Insurance [8] - The company's short-term interest-bearing debt is relatively low, and under extreme stress tests, Longfor is expected to have no difficulty repaying its 2024 debt [2] - Longfor's gross margin and net margin have declined but remain among the best in the industry, with a gross margin of 16.90% in 2023 [109] Commercial Real Estate - Longfor's commercial real estate business, primarily consisting of shopping malls and rental housing, generated 129.40 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, an 8.90% year-on-year increase [64] - The rental income from shopping malls accounted for over 75% of the total commercial real estate revenue, with a stable occupancy rate of 96.20% by the end of 2023 [64] - The company plans to open 8 new shopping malls in 2024, with a total construction area of 1.0968 million square meters, which is expected to support future financing [71] Sales Performance - Longfor's contracted sales in 2023 were 173.49 billion yuan, a 13.94% year-on-year decrease, with a sales area of 10.796 million square meters, down 17.25% [42] - The top 5 cities contributing to sales in 2023 were Chengdu, Xi'an, Beijing, Hefei, and Suzhou, accounting for 37.75% of total sales [34] - Sales in Chengdu, Xi'an, Beijing, Suzhou, and Tianjin increased by over 20% in 2023, while Hangzhou, Jinan, Shenyang, and Nanjing saw significant declines [34] Land Acquisition - Longfor acquired 30 and 31 land parcels in 2022 and 2023, respectively, with total land acquisition costs of 24.359 billion yuan and 25.046 billion yuan [59] - The company focused on acquiring land in cities with strong inventory turnover, such as Chengdu, Hefei, Xi'an, Suzhou, and Jinan [50] - The average land acquisition cost in 2023 was 1.22 million yuan per square meter, with Chengdu, Hefei, and Xi'an being the top cities in terms of land acquisition [62] Inventory Turnover - The inventory turnover cycle in Yantai is estimated to be 53.18 years in 2023, indicating significant pressure on inventory turnover [14] - Cities like Yancheng and Zhuhai have inventory turnover cycles exceeding 10 years, with Yancheng at 32.51 years and Zhuhai at 12.93 years [53] - The top 20 core sales cities have an average inventory turnover cycle of only 2.67 years, indicating a strong need for restocking [38]