三大航2023年年报点评：三大航均大幅减亏，2024年国内市场供需格局有望改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the three major airlines [1] Core Insights - The three major airlines have significantly reduced their losses in 2023, with Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines reporting net losses of 10.5 billion, 42.1 billion, and 81.7 billion yuan respectively, marking a year-on-year reduction in losses of 375 billion, 285 billion, and 292 billion yuan [2] - All three airlines' gross margins are below 2019 levels, with Air China's gross margin at 5.0%, China Southern's at 7.7%, and China Eastern's at 1.1%, reflecting challenges in international route recovery and high fuel costs [2] - The domestic market supply-demand imbalance is expected to marginally improve in 2024, although pricing pressures will persist due to ongoing international route recovery challenges [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines have all achieved significant reductions in losses for 2023, aligning with performance forecasts [2] - The gross margins for 2023 are significantly lower than in 2019, primarily due to slow recovery in international routes and high fuel costs [2] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the domestic market's supply-demand dynamics in 2024, with expectations of a mild increase in ticket prices as wide-body aircraft return to international routes [2] - Despite the anticipated improvements, the report notes that the domestic market may still face pricing pressures compared to 2019 levels [2] Investment Projections - The report projects net profits for Air China of 69 billion, 98 billion, and 116 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with a target price of 9.5 yuan [3] - For China Southern Airlines, projected net profits are 67 billion, 90 billion, and 105 billion yuan for the same period, with a target price of 7.0 yuan [3] - China Eastern Airlines is expected to achieve net profits of 52 billion, 74 billion, and 90 billion yuan, with a target price of 4.5 yuan [3]