规模推升盈利水平，销量有望超预期达成

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [2][7] Core Views - Geely Automobile's revenue for 2023 reached RMB 179.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, with a net profit of RMB 5.308 billion, excluding one-time gains from 2022, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 51% [2] - The company achieved total sales of 1.687 million vehicles, with 487,000 of those being new energy vehicles, representing a penetration rate of nearly 30% [2] - The report highlights significant growth in overseas sales, which reached 274,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 38%, accounting for 16.3% of total sales [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards, with 2024 revenue expected to be RMB 217.2 billion and net profit RMB 7.414 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40.7% [2] - The gross margin for the second half of 2023 improved to 15.9%, driven by reduced raw material costs and enhanced scale effects [2] - The report projects a continued improvement in profitability for the Lynk & Co and Zeekr brands, with expectations of reduced losses and potential for profitability in the near future [2] Market Outlook - Geely is expected to continue its aggressive expansion in overseas markets, leveraging its technology and product offerings [2] - The company plans to launch nine core models across its three brands in 2024, focusing on electric and hybrid vehicles priced between RMB 100,000 to 300,000 [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of a long-term strategy in navigating the competitive automotive landscape, suggesting that Geely's systematic approach will help maintain its competitive edge [2]