baonengyuan(SZ:000690) Guolian Securities·2024-04-08 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.275 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 9.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 889 million yuan, a significant increase of 385.17% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in coal prices has positively impacted the company's performance, with the gross profit margin for its electricity business rising to 13.56%, an increase of 8.14 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from high electricity demand growth in 2024, with a forecasted increase in electricity consumption in Guangdong province of 14.7% in the first two months of 2024 [3]. - The company plans to commission new power units in late 2024 to early 2025, which will contribute to its performance in 2025 [4]. - The dividend proposal for 2023 is set at 0.3 yuan per share, significantly higher than 0.03 yuan per share in 2022, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.5% [4]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 8.648 billion yuan, 13.247 billion yuan, and 13.379 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -15.83%, 53.18%, and 0.99% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 909 million yuan, 1.222 billion yuan, and 1.381 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 2.29%, 34.41%, and 13.07% [5]. - The report estimates an EPS of 0.42 yuan, 0.56 yuan, and 0.63 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a three-year CAGR of 15.81% [5].