估值与盈利周观察——3月第五期

Group 1 - The overall valuation of the market has declined, with broad-based indices experiencing a drop, while dividend stocks have performed the best. Growth stocks have seen a significant decline, and the current market valuation is generally below the 50% percentile, indicating potential for valuation recovery [5][32][41]. - The report highlights that the current market ERP has slightly increased but remains above one standard deviation, suggesting a high probability of A-share allocation [5][75]. - The report indicates that various industries are currently concentrated in the third and fourth quadrants of valuation, with overall industry valuations being relatively cheap [27][33]. Group 2 - The report provides a detailed analysis of profit expectations across different sectors, with notable changes in expected growth rates for 2023E, 2024E, and 2025E. For instance, the agriculture sector is expected to see a significant decline of 127.3% in 2023E, while the real estate sector shows an extraordinary increase of 1497.6% in 2024E [10]. - The report identifies that industries such as non-bank financials, construction materials, and certain raw materials are currently at high historical percentiles in terms of PB-ROE, indicating potential overvaluation [15][73]. - The report notes that popular concepts such as advanced packaging and central state-owned enterprises are at high historical valuation percentiles, while other popular concepts are at lower historical percentiles [21][32]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the performance of various sectors has varied, with non-ferrous metals, home appliances, and oil and petrochemicals showing the highest gains, while electronics, computers, and media have performed the weakest [32][59]. - The report indicates that the relative PE and PB of the ChiNext Index compared to the CSI 300 have slightly decreased, reflecting changes in market sentiment [63]. - The report suggests that the current valuation of consumer, manufacturing, and technology sectors is generally below the 50% historical percentile, while the technology sector, particularly in computing, media, and electronics, is relatively high [73].