SINO BIOPHARM(01177)2024-04-09 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Biologic Products (1177 HK) with a target price of HKD 4.80, indicating a potential upside of 69.6% from the current closing price of HKD 2.83 [1][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant strategic partnership with Boehringer Ingelheim (BI) to develop and commercialize BI's oncology pipeline in mainland China, which includes three late-stage clinical assets and several early-stage candidates. The combined peak sales for these products in mainland China are projected to reach RMB 5 billion by 2030, with a double-digit profit margin expected from the sales profits [1]. - The report emphasizes the differentiated targets and indications in the oncology pipeline, particularly focusing on three key products: Brigimadlin, Zongertinib, and BI 764532, each with promising clinical trial results and expected market entry dates in China ranging from 2025 to 2028 [1][5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a gradual increase from RMB 26,026 million in 2022 to RMB 38,337 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.6% from 2023 to 2024 [4][8]. - Net profit is expected to recover from RMB 2,332 million in 2023 to RMB 3,859 million by 2026, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from RMB 0.13 in 2023 to RMB 0.21 in 2026, indicating a strong recovery and growth potential [4][8]. Clinical Pipeline Overview - Brigimadlin, a first-in-class MDM2-p53 antagonist, is in late-stage trials for DDLPS and is expected to launch in China by 2025. Clinical trial results show an overall response rate (ORR) of 19.0% and a disease control rate (DCR) of 84.8% [1][5]. - Zongertinib, a selective HER2 inhibitor, has shown promising results in treating NSCLC with an ORR of 73.9% and is anticipated to be available in China by 2027 [1][5]. - BI 764532, a DLL3/CD3 bispecific T-cell engager, is in early-stage trials and is expected to complement existing treatments for SCLC, with a projected launch in 2028 [1][5].