3月通胀数据和美联储会议纪要点评：降息或被延迟至三季度

Employment Data - In March, non-farm payrolls increased by 303,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 214,000[22] - The labor participation rate for ages 16-19 rose by 1.6 percentage points to 38.2%[4] - Part-time employment increased by 498,000 in March, following a decline of 182,000 in February[4] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The overall CPI rose by 0.38% month-on-month in March, slightly down from 0.44% in February[24] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.8% year-on-year, while the core inflation rate increased by 0.36% month-on-month[21] - The super core services CPI, excluding housing prices, was a key factor supporting core CPI resilience[21] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in June has decreased to 15%, down from 60% previously[5] - A rate cut is now more likely to be delayed until the third quarter, with a probability of 60%[5] - The Federal Reserve's stance remains dovish, but strong economic data may increase the risk of a hard landing[5] Risks and Considerations - There is a risk that the Federal Reserve may not respond timely to economic weakness, potentially leading to a recession[23] - High inflation rates could persist if rate cuts are implemented prematurely, risking economic overheating[23]