3月物价数据点评：通胀回升仍需政策支持

Inflation Data - March CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, below the expected 0.3% and previous value of 0.7%[11] - March PPI decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, slightly worse than the expected -2.7% and previous value of -2.7%[11] Price Trends - Food prices fell by 3.2% month-on-month in March, nearly offsetting the 3.3% increase in February, and were weaker than the historical average of -1.7%[12] - Non-food prices decreased by 0.5% month-on-month in March, weaker than February's increase of 0.5% and historical averages[12] Core CPI Insights - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% year-on-year in March, a decline of 0.6 percentage points from February[23] - The two-year average growth rate of core CPI fell to 0.65%, the lowest in three months[23] PPI Analysis - PPI's weak performance is attributed to a recovery in industrial production post-holiday, with industrial supply being relatively ample, but investment recovery lagging[14] - Short-term PPI may see a weak rebound, but returning to positive year-on-year growth will require policy support[14] Economic Outlook - CPI is expected to hover between 0-0.5% in the short term, with stabilization and recovery dependent on improvements in employment and income[24] - Risks include unexpected central bank adjustments, inflation exceeding expectations, and geopolitical tensions impacting economic recovery[26]