2024财年半年报点评：营业利润低于预期；欧美业务高速成长

Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 2,766.6 billion yen in FY2023, with a growth rate of 20.2%, and is expected to reach 3,818.7 billion yen by FY2026, reflecting a steady decline in growth rates to 10.8% [1][3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 296.2 billion yen in FY2023, increasing to 409.1 billion yen by FY2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.4% in FY2023 and 9.1% in FY2026 [1][3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 964.5 yen in FY2023 to 1,332.0 yen in FY2026, with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 47.7 to 34.5 over the same period [1][3] Revenue Breakdown - For FY2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.60 trillion yen, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, aligning closely with the expected 1.64 trillion yen [14] - Revenue from the Japanese Uniqlo segment decreased by 2%, while overseas Uniqlo revenue grew by 17%, indicating a shift in market dynamics [14] - The Greater China region's Uniqlo revenue increased by 12.3% in FY2024 H1, but concerns remain regarding the sustainability of single-store revenue growth [14] Profitability Analysis - The operating profit for FY2024 H1 was reported at 257.1 billion yen, which was below expectations due to changes in bonus recognition and rising labor costs [14] - The gross profit margin improved to 52.9%, with a notable increase in the Japanese Uniqlo segment's margin to 49.3% [14] - The company anticipates a continued increase in operating profit, with projections of 3,419 billion yen for FY2024, 3,750 billion yen for FY2025, and 4,091 billion yen for FY2026 [14] Market Outlook - The European Uniqlo segment is expected to see a CAGR of approximately 37% from FY2023 to FY2027, with FY2024 revenue projected at 250 billion yen, a 30% increase [14] - The company expresses confidence in the growth potential of its overseas markets, particularly in North America and Europe, where single-store revenue is expected to continue rising [14] - The overall market sentiment remains neutral, with a target price set at 47,300 yen, reflecting a cautious but optimistic outlook for the company's performance [14]