ANTA SPORTS(02020) 交银国际证券·2024-04-18 07:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports (2020 HK) with a target price of HKD 135.00, indicating a potential upside of 65.4% from the current price of HKD 81.60 [1][5]. Core Insights - Anta's sales growth in Q1 2024 was softer than expected, but a reacceleration is anticipated starting from Q2 as the high base effect diminishes. The sales growth for Anta brand was in the low single digits year-on-year, while FILA experienced high single-digit growth. Descente and Kolon brands showed a robust growth of 25-30% [1]. - The report highlights that the Chinese sportswear market is showing signs of differentiation, with lower-tier brands demonstrating resilience compared to international brands. Anta's performance is noted to be weaker than 361 Degrees but better than Nike and Adidas [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of brand renewal for FILA, as its performance has been mixed, particularly in high-tier cities where consumer spending is soft. The need for continuous investment in brand innovation is highlighted [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Anta are as follows: - 2022: RMB 53,651 million - 2023: RMB 62,356 million (16.2% YoY growth) - 2024E: RMB 71,151 million (14.1% YoY growth) [2][6]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2022: RMB 7,590 million - 2023: RMB 10,236 million (30.8% YoY growth) - 2024E: RMB 13,571 million (36.2% YoY growth) [2][6]. - The report projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% for earnings per share from 2024 to 2026 [1]. Market Performance - Anta's stock has shown a year-to-date change of +7.72% and has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 229.41 billion [3][5]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are HKD 100.70 and HKD 64.15, respectively [3]. Brand Performance - Anta's brand performance in Q1 2024 showed a mixed picture, with the core brand experiencing high single-digit growth, while FILA's performance was affected by brand-specific issues and a decline in its fashion line [1][4]. - The report notes that the children's segment for Anta is expected to see a negative growth trend, while online sales remain strong with mid-single-digit growth [1][4]. Conclusion - The report concludes with a positive long-term outlook for Anta, driven by its strong brand positioning and execution capabilities, alongside its expansion into fast-growing segments like winter sports and outdoor markets [1].