Chipscreen(688321) 海通国际·2024-04-23 01:01Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 26.33 per share [36][41]. Core Insights - The company is entering a year of harvesting original new drugs starting in 2024, with significant expectations for its drug Xidabenamine in various indications [27][37]. - Xidabenamine has shown promising data in multiple trials, particularly in combination with PD-1, indicating a potential new era for immuno-oncology treatments [28][38]. - The company anticipates multiple data readouts and market approval submissions in 2024, including for Xidabenamine in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and Siglitin in NASH [4][17]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported revenue of RMB 524 million, a slight decline of 1.2% year-over-year, while net profit increased significantly by 408.1% to RMB 89 million [16][18]. - The revenue forecast for 2024 is RMB 705 million, representing a growth of 34.5% year-over-year, with expectations of continued growth in subsequent years [20][18]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to decline from 89.1% in 2023 to 83.8% in 2024, reflecting increased competition and investment in R&D [18][20]. Drug Pipeline and Market Potential - Siglitin, a novel insulin sensitizer, has entered a volume increase phase after being included in the National Reimbursement Drug List for type 2 diabetes in January 2023 [27]. - The company expects to see significant growth in revenue from Siglitin, with a projected revenue of RMB 127 million in 2024, up from RMB 42 million in 2023 [23]. - Xidabenamine is anticipated to receive approval for its DLBCL indication in the first half of 2024, which could significantly expand its market potential [37]. Valuation - The DCF valuation suggests a fair market capitalization of RMB 10.83 billion, with a target price of RMB 26.33 per share, based on a perpetual growth rate of 0.20% to 0.80% and a WACC of 5.95% to 6.55% [29][41].