Xinyangfeng Agricultural(SZ:000902)2024-04-23 08:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 15.68 based on a 14x PE for 2024 [8][14]. Core Insights - In 2023, the company's net profit excluding non-recurring items fell by 8.83% year-on-year, with total revenue of RMB 15.10 billion, down 5.38% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.21 billion, a decrease of 7.85% [39]. - The decline in profit was primarily attributed to fluctuations in raw material prices and market factors affecting downstream inventory levels, leading to price drops in phosphate compound fertilizers [39]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 3 per 10 shares, totaling RMB 376 million, which represents approximately 31.15% of the 2023 net profit attributable to shareholders [39]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved phosphate fertilizer sales of 5.07 million tons, an increase of 6.30% year-on-year. The breakdown by product includes: - Phosphate fertilizers: 1.06 million tons sold, up 13.97% year-on-year, with revenue of RMB 3.05 billion, down 8.03%, and a gross profit margin of 19.52%, up 1.16 percentage points [7][13]. - Conventional compound fertilizers: 2.89 million tons sold, down 1.49%, with revenue of RMB 7.51 billion, down 13.12%, and a gross profit margin of 11.03%, up 1.02 percentage points [7][13]. - New compound fertilizers: 1.12 million tons sold, up 23.60%, with revenue of RMB 3.67 billion, up 12.50%, and a gross profit margin of 19.47%, up 1.10 percentage points [7][13]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is RMB 1.41 billion, RMB 1.67 billion, and RMB 1.93 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.12, RMB 1.33, and RMB 1.53 [8][14]. - The company expects revenue growth to resume in 2024, with projected revenues of RMB 15.86 billion, RMB 17.15 billion, and RMB 18.60 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [11][36].