Guolian Securities·2024-04-23 13:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a current price of 17.04 CNY and a target price of 20.25 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2024 results that exceeded expectations, with revenue of 747.77 billion CNY, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.22%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.33%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 62.61 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.05% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 26.37% [2]. - The production of gold and copper increased in Q1 2024, with gold production at 16.8 tons (up 5.35% year-on-year) and copper production at 262,600 tons (up 5.19% year-on-year). The company’s key copper mines are expected to support annual production targets [3]. - Cost reduction and efficiency improvements have been effective, with the overall operating costs, especially for overseas projects, showing a significant quarter-on-quarter decline. The gross margin for mining operations was 54.50%, up 0.97 percentage points year-on-year and up 8.88 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The company is optimistic about the price upcycle for gold and copper in 2024, with expectations for both volume and price increases. The planned copper production for 2024 is 1.11 million tons, and gold production is 73.5 tons, both higher than 2023 levels [5]. - Profit forecasts indicate a strong growth trajectory, with net profits expected to reach 263.57 billion CNY in 2024, 323.69 billion CNY in 2025, and 364.83 billion CNY in 2026. The estimated EPS for these years are 1.00 CNY, 1.23 CNY, and 1.39 CNY respectively, with a target PE of 20 times for 2024 [6]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenues of 316,082 million CNY, with a growth rate of 7.73%. The net profit is projected to be 26,357 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 24.80% [7]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 306,044 million CNY in 2022 to 428,857 million CNY by 2026, indicating a robust growth outlook [10]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 350,279.23 million CNY, with a total share capital of 26,325.99 million shares [8].