LI NING(02331) 申万宏源研究·2024-04-24 07:32Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of 10-20% [3][4]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2024 sales performance met expectations, with the main brand (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) achieving low single-digit growth in retail revenue. Online sales grew by 20-30%, while offline channels saw a decline [3]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its channels and product offerings, particularly in the running shoe and fitness categories, which have shown strong growth. The basketball category is currently under adjustment [3]. - Inventory levels are healthy, with improvements in discount rates contributing to better average selling prices (ASP). The company expects continued improvement in discounts and stable ASP moving forward [3]. - Management maintains a conservative growth outlook for 2024, targeting mid-single-digit revenue growth and low double-digit profit margins, supported by new product launches and seasonal sales [3][4]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth from 258 billion RMB in 2024 to 344 billion RMB by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9% [4][9]. - Net profit is projected to recover from 31.9 billion RMB in 2023 to 40.7 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a gradual improvement in profitability [4][9]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 48.4% to 49.2% over the forecast period, indicating effective cost management [4][9].