HIKVISION(SZ:002415) Guolian Securities·2024-04-22 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hikvision (002415) is "Buy" (maintained) with a current price of 32.85 CNY and a target price of 44.96 CNY [2]. Core Views - Hikvision reported a steady growth in performance, achieving a revenue of 89.34 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 7.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.11 billion CNY, up 9.89% year-on-year [3]. - The company is transitioning towards becoming an OT manufacturer, establishing a second growth curve through digital product innovation and strategic transformation [5]. - The performance showed a quarterly improvement in 2023, with expectations for 2024 to exhibit a trend of lower performance in the first half followed by higher performance in the second half [6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the revenue from the PBG segment was 15.35 billion CNY, down 4.84% year-on-year, while the EBG segment grew by 8.12% to 17.84 billion CNY, and the SMBG segment saw a slight increase of 1.46% to 12.68 billion CNY [4]. - The overseas revenue reached 23.98 billion CNY, marking an 8.83% increase, with innovation business revenue growing by 23.11% to 18.55 billion CNY [4][5]. - The company forecasts revenues of 99.53 billion CNY, 112.96 billion CNY, and 128.94 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits projected at 16.78 billion CNY, 19.23 billion CNY, and 22.04 billion CNY [7][8]. Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The estimated EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.80 CNY, 2.06 CNY, and 2.36 CNY respectively, with a three-year CAGR of 16.03% [7]. - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 25 for 2024, reflecting its leading position in the global security industry and growth drivers from innovation and overseas markets [7].