AHB(SH:688639) Guolian Securities·2024-04-23 04:32Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 137.90 CNY, based on a current price of 104.90 CNY [7]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant growth in 2023, with a revenue of 1.94 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 37%, and a net profit of 450 million CNY, up 40% year-on-year [2]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 500 million CNY, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth but a 13% quarter-on-quarter decline, primarily due to poor performance in the valine business [2][3]. - The company is diversifying its product portfolio, with new products like bio-based succinic acid and PDO targeting large markets, which enhances its growth potential [4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a sales volume of 77,200 tons for amino acid products in 2023, a 30% increase, and a revenue increase of 26% [3]. - Vitamin business revenue surged by 575%, contributing approximately 13% to total revenue, with a gross margin increase of 18.5 percentage points to 55.1% [3]. - The company forecasts revenues of 3.11 billion CNY, 3.89 billion CNY, and 4.80 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 61%, 25%, and 23% [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 3.94 CNY, 5.46 CNY, and 6.98 CNY, respectively, with a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% [5]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for comparable companies in 2024 is expected to be 31 times, while the report assigns a P/E of 35 times to the company due to its strong commercialization capabilities [5][6].