钢铁行业点评报告：3月全球粗钢产量同比下滑，印度产量高增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - Global crude steel production decreased by 4.3% year-on-year in March 2024, with notable increases in production from Turkey and India [5][9] - The manufacturing PMI in developed economies shows signs of recovery, suggesting support for future steel demand, with expected growth in steel demand of 1.3% and 2.7% in 2024 and 2025 respectively [11][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring changes in the global steel supply-demand structure and its impact on resource allocation within the industry [13] Summary by Sections Global Steel Production Trends - In March 2024, global crude steel production was 161.2 million tons, down 4.3% year-on-year, while overseas production was 72.92 million tons, up 2.45% [5][6] - The average daily crude steel production globally was 5.1997 million tons, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 1.31% [5] - Asian crude steel production saw a significant decline of 5.14%, with China, Japan, and South Korea experiencing substantial decreases [8][9] Country-Specific Production Insights - China produced 88.27 million tons of crude steel in March, down 7.8% year-on-year, while India saw an increase of 11.37% to 1.2709 million tons [9][10] - Turkey's crude steel production rose by 18% to 320,000 tons, indicating a positive trend in certain regions [10] Economic Indicators and Future Demand - The manufacturing PMI for major developed economies remains below the growth line, but there are signs of recovery since the fourth quarter of 2023 [11] - The World Steel Association forecasts a robust growth rate of 3.5% for global steel demand (excluding China) over the next two years, indicating resilience in overseas demand [12]