海外电子周点评：ASML24Q1新增订单不及预期，台积电下调晶圆代工行业增长预期

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is upgraded to "Accumulate" for the first time [1] Core Insights - ASML's Q1 2024 new orders fell short of expectations, with EUV order demand remaining strong. The company reported Q1 2024 revenue of €5.29 billion, a 21% year-over-year decline, and a net profit of €1.22 billion, down 38% year-over-year. The gross margin was 51%, exceeding market expectations due to an improved product mix [2] - TSMC's Q1 2024 gross margin increased, benefiting from the ramp-up of AI chips and an increase in the proportion of 5nm products. TSMC reported Q1 2024 revenue of NT$592.64 billion, a 16.5% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of NT$225.49 billion, up 8.9% year-over-year. The gross margin was 53.1%, reflecting product structure improvements [3] - TSMC has lowered its annual growth forecast for the global foundry industry from 20% to around 10% for 2024, with the automotive sector's outlook shifting from positive to negative. AI is expected to be a significant growth driver for TSMC, with projected revenue from AI processors doubling in 2024 compared to 2023 [3] Summary by Sections ASML Overview - Q1 2024 revenue was €5.29 billion, down 21% year-over-year, with a net profit of €1.22 billion, down 38% year-over-year. The gross margin was 51%, with EUV systems accounting for 46% of sales [2] - New orders in Q1 2024 totaled €3.6 billion, significantly lower than the €9.2 billion in Q4 2023, primarily due to customer delays in high-end equipment investments and geopolitical export controls [2] - Sales in mainland China accounted for 49% of ASML's revenue in Q1 2024, showing a 10 percentage point increase quarter-over-quarter [2] TSMC Overview - Q1 2024 revenue reached NT$592.64 billion, a 16.5% year-over-year increase, with a net profit of NT$225.49 billion, up 8.9% year-over-year. The gross margin was 53.1%, reflecting improvements in product mix [3] - The proportion of revenue from 3nm, 5nm, and 7nm processes was 9%, 37%, and 19%, respectively, with the 5nm process benefiting from AI chip demand [3] - TSMC expects AI-related revenue to double in 2024 compared to 2023, contributing approximately 13% to total revenue [3]