Guolian Securities·2024-04-28 14:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 45.00 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company's NBV (New Business Value) continues to show positive growth, increasing by 26.3% year-on-year in Q1 2024, driven by product structure optimization [2]. - The company has switched to new accounting standards (IFRS 17 and IFRS 9), reporting a net profit of 20.644 billion CNY in Q1 2024, which represents a decline of 24.5% year-on-year under the same accounting standards [3]. - The company is expected to see improvements in investment income due to a recovering capital market, supporting net profit growth in the coming years [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company's first-year premium income was 74.825 billion CNY, up 4.7% year-on-year, with long-term policies (10 years and above) growing by 25.4% [2]. - The total investment income for Q1 2024 was 64.657 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [3]. - The company's total assets reached 5.93 trillion CNY, a 4.8% increase from the beginning of the year [3]. Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 25.366 billion CNY, 28.507 billion CNY, and 32.573 billion CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 20%, 12%, and 14% [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company's P/EV (Price to Embedded Value) ratio is projected to decrease from 0.66 in 2023 to 0.56 in 2026, indicating a potential undervaluation [5].