NHU(002001) 国联证券·2024-04-29 07:30Investment Rating and Core Views - The report gives the company a "Buy" rating with a target price of 25 yuan [6][8] - The company is a global leader in the fine chemical industry, with a strong competitive advantage in vitamin and methionine businesses [2] - The methionine business is expected to drive significant growth, potentially doubling the company's scale [4] Vitamin Business - The vitamin industry is in a downturn, but the company's cost advantage and profitability resilience are evident [3] - The global CR4 for VA and VE in 2024 is 81% and 80%, respectively, indicating a highly concentrated market [3] - The company's self-supply of key intermediates like citral and linalool gives it a cost advantage [3] Methionine Business - Methionine is a high-growth, low-cost business with a global CR4 of 73% in 2024, suggesting a shift towards oligopoly pricing [4] - The company has a solid methionine production capacity of 300,000 tons, with an additional 180,000 tons of liquid methionine under construction [2][4] - The company's methionine business is highly competitive, with lower investment costs per ton compared to industry peers [65][66] Fragrance and New Materials Business - The fragrance and new materials businesses are well-integrated with the company's core nutrition business, leveraging shared intermediates to reduce costs [5] - The company's fragrance business benefits from the release of new capacities, such as the 5,000-ton menthol project, which started production in 2023 [30] - The new materials business, particularly PPS (polyphenylene sulfide), has a capacity of 22,000 tons, with a 7,000-ton Phase III project completed in 2023 [72] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 19 billion yuan in 2024 to 25.4 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 15% [6] - Net profit is projected to increase from 4.5 billion yuan in 2024 to 7.2 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 23% [6] - The EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.46 yuan in 2024 to 2.32 yuan in 2026 [6] Industry Insights - The global methionine market is expected to grow steadily, with demand reaching 160 million tons in 2023, up 3.2% year-on-year [55] - The vitamin industry is undergoing consolidation, with DSM planning to divest its animal nutrition and health business by 2025, potentially improving the competitive landscape [52] - The PPS market is dominated by Japanese companies, but the company is making strides with its high-end PPS products, which have applications in electronics, automotive, and precision machinery [72]