2024-04-30 03:02Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 performance was slightly below expectations, with revenue of 4.3 billion yuan, down 36% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.23 billion yuan, down 49% year-on-year [6][8] - The management fee ratio increased to 67.1%, up 18.9 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The decline in investment and investment banking businesses was the largest drag on performance, with net investment revenue down 38% year-on-year and investment banking revenue down 59% year-on-year [6][7] Summary by Sections Revenue Overview - Q1 2024 revenue breakdown: net investment accounted for 41%, brokerage 33%, investment banking 12%, net interest 4%, and asset management 7% [6] - The company's net investment and investment banking businesses significantly impacted the growth rate of main securities revenue, dragging it down by 16.4 percentage points and 11.2 percentage points, respectively [6] Investment Banking - The company's ranking in equity underwriting has declined, with Q1 2024 IPO revenue at 0.792 billion yuan, down 95% year-on-year, and a market share of 3.54%, down 12.1 percentage points year-on-year [6][7] - The bond underwriting scale was 259.5 billion yuan, down 9.2% year-on-year, with a market share of 9.38% [6] Brokerage Business - Brokerage revenue decreased by 7% year-on-year, while the industry saw a 1% increase in stock trading volume [7] - The decline is attributed to a significant drop in institutional commission and distribution income, which accounted for 42% of the company's brokerage net income in 2023 [7] Investment Business - The investment yield has declined, primarily due to a decrease in derivatives business revenue [7] - As of the end of Q1 2024, the company's investment asset scale was 303.5 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year [7] Profit Forecast - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 6.22 billion yuan, 7.03 billion yuan, and 7.69 billion yuan, respectively [6][8] - The company is expected to benefit from regulatory support aimed at strengthening the financial sector [6]