海外中资股2023年年报财务分析：修复进行时，消费是亮点

Core Insights - The overall performance of overseas Chinese stocks is recovering, with PPI bottoming out, which is expected to support capital expenditure growth [16][104][118] - The recovery in earnings is driven by sectors such as consumer discretionary, finance, and utilities, with notable contributions from retail and consumer services [16][61][56] Earnings Growth - Post-pandemic recovery is evident, with a significant acceleration in earnings growth expected in the second half of 2023 [10][20] - The overall revenue decline for Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong has narrowed to -2.2%, while non-financial sectors have seen a revenue growth rebound to 2.1% [11][31] - By the second half of 2023, the earnings growth rate for all Chinese stocks is projected to rise to 4.5%, with non-financial sectors seeing a growth rate of 1.9% [53][51] Earnings Quality - The return on equity (ROE) for Chinese stocks is stabilizing and showing signs of recovery, supported by improvements in asset turnover and net profit margins [43][66] - The gross margin has shown an overall recovery in the second half of 2023, particularly in consumer, real estate, information technology, and materials sectors [73][95] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure is expected to rise as PPI rebounds, with materials, healthcare, and TMT sectors poised for recovery [104][123] - The capital expenditure growth for materials and healthcare is anticipated to improve, while real estate continues to face challenges [118][120] Inventory Management - The non-financial sector of Chinese stocks has likely ended its destocking cycle, with inventory growth rebounding alongside revenue growth [113][112] - Many sub-sectors within materials and consumer discretionary are experiencing historically low inventory growth rates and inventory-to-sales ratios [19][136]