2024-05-01 03:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) [2][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 61.594 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.05%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -0.362 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 1.446 billion yuan in the same period last year [2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to a decrease in settlement scale, with a settlement area amounting to 46.67 billion yuan in Q1 2024, down 13.8% year-on-year, and a drop in gross profit margin by 6.7 percentage points to 10.5% [2]. - The company has 23.225 million square meters of sold but uncompleted properties, corresponding to a contract amount of 350.15 billion yuan, which is expected to support future revenue [2]. - Sales in Q1 2024 amounted to 57.98 billion yuan, a decrease of 42.8% year-on-year, with a sales area of 3.911 million square meters, down 37.5% year-on-year, and an average selling price of 14,825 yuan per square meter, down 8.5% [2]. - The company has been cautious in land acquisition, adding three new projects in Q1 2024 with a total planned construction area of 362,000 square meters and a land cost of 930 million yuan [2]. - The company maintained a cash collection efficiency of over 100% in Q1 2024, with a debt ratio of 64.9% and a net debt ratio of 59.3% [2]. - The rental housing business generated revenue of 0.833 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, while logistics and warehousing revenue was 0.97 billion yuan, a 1% increase year-on-year [2]. Financial Summary - For 2024-2026, the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 11.622 billion yuan, 11.866 billion yuan, and 12.234 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.97 yuan, 0.99 yuan, and 1.03 yuan [6][7]. - The company’s revenue for 2023 is estimated at 465.739 billion yuan, with a revenue growth rate of -7.56% [7]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be around 15.01% in 2024, slightly down from 15.23% in 2023 [7].