5月美联储会议点评：何时降息取决于经济数据

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the policy interest rate unchanged, indicating a neutral overall tone[1] - The statement noted that "economic activity continues to expand steadily," with the addition of "continues" compared to the previous meeting[1] - The analysis of inflation highlighted a lack of further progress towards the 2% inflation target in recent months[1] Group 2: Employment and Inflation Balance - The statement indicated that the risks to achieving employment and inflation targets are "moving toward better balance," reflecting slight dissatisfaction with the progress made in the first quarter[1] - Powell ruled out the possibility of an interest rate hike, stating that the next action is unlikely to be an increase[1] - There are two potential paths for triggering a rate cut: significant decline in inflation towards 2% or unexpected weakness in the labor market[1] Group 3: Economic Data and Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed announced a reduction in the monthly redemption cap for Treasury bonds from $60 billion to $25 billion, which was higher than market expectations[1] - The company maintains the view that the first rate cut will occur in the third quarter, expecting a total reduction of 50-75 basis points for the year[2] - There is a 30% probability that rate cuts may be delayed until the fourth quarter, and a 10% chance that there will be no cuts at all this year[2]